Fed Speech · Jefferson

What the statement says

Neutral-to-hawkish: Highlights stalled disinflation, upside inflation risks from energy prices, supports holding rates steady and retains option to hike further

• Explicitly states 'progress on disinflation has stalled over the past year', attributing it to tariffs, with core PCE inflation at 3.0% y/y and 'little progress in lowering core inflation over the past year'
• Characterizes Middle East conflict-driven energy price surge as 'upside risk to my inflation forecast' and notes 'at least in the short term I expect overall inflation to move higher', confirming gasoline prices are 'up about a dollar compared to just before the recent conflict'
• Reaffirms 'current policy stance is well positioned' and supported last week's FOMC decision to 'hold the target range… steady', while stressing policy will be guided by 'incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks' for any 'additional adjustments'
• Describes labor market as 'roughly in balance' but with risks 'skewed to the downside'; unemployment rate is 4.4%, unchanged, yet three-month average payroll gains were only 6,000, and job growth is 'concentrated in only a few sectors such as healthcare and social services'
• Explicitly disclaims collective authority: footnote 1 states 'The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors'

AI-generated summary of the official text. The official statement is authoritative. Not investment advice.