FED_SPEECH · July 6, 2026 · 11:00 ET
Fed Speech · Waller
Released
Fed Speech · Waller is scheduled for July 6, 2026 at 11:00 ET. The actual figure appears here after the official release.
About this release
Fed governors and regional presidents speak at conferences and testimony. Because policy runs on expectations, these remarks are the committee’s expectation-management channel between meetings.
Between meetings, Fed officials steer expectations through speeches — the chair and voting members can move markets mid-sentence.
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What the statement says
Waller stresses that initial conditions are critical for monetary policy transmission and warns that rigid forward guidance can impair policy effectiveness
- Waller notes that the job vacancy–unemployment ratio reached 2 in early 2022—a level never seen before—and this initial condition caused monetary tightening to reduce vacancies rather than employment
- He argues large economic and policy shocks trigger nonlinear behavioral responses, rendering standard linear models inadequate and potentially shortening traditional policy lags
- He affirms the value of forward guidance but criticizes the FOMC’s September 2020 guidance stating liftoff would occur only after inflation had risen to 2 percent and was ‘on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time’, which remained unchanged as inflation surged in 2021
- Waller states that when policymakers face divergent, high-probability scenarios (e.g., yellow light: stop or go), a weighted average cannot serve as a meaningful ‘base case’ for forward guidance
AI-generated summary of the official text. The official statement is authoritative. Not investment advice.
Figures as published by the official source, which is authoritative. Not investment advice.