美联储讲话 · Waller

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鹰派转向：Waller明确支持删除‘宽松倾向’措辞，称不能排除未来加息可能

• 明确主张删除政策声明中‘宽松倾向（easing bias）’表述，以表明‘降息与加息概率相等’——原文：‘I would support removing the "easing bias" language in our policy statement to make it clear that a rate cut is no more likely in the future than a rate increase.’
• 首次公开表示‘不能排除进一步加息可能’，前提为通胀未缓解且通胀预期‘出现脱锚迹象’——原文：‘I can no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon, and that is especially true if measures of inflation expectations [...] show signs of becoming unanchored.’
• 将当前政策立场定为‘近期内维持利率不变’，强调下一步行动‘完全取决于数据’——原文：‘I do not expect to support a change to the policy rate in the near term. The next move, whether it is a hike or cut, will depend on the data.’
• 指出4月核心PCE通胀达3.3%（两年半新高）、整体PCE通胀约3.8%（三年新高），均‘远高于2%目标’——原文：‘I estimate that personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation [...] rose around 3.8 percent over the previous 12 months [...] April core PCE inflation was up about 3.3 percent year over year, which is the most in two and a half years.’
• 强调中东冲突持续时间是通胀路径关键变量，并直言‘市场低估了长期高能源价格风险’——原文：‘I said in a speech on April 17 that I thought markets were underpricing the risk of prolonged high energy prices, and I still think they are.’

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